Obama Wins Big
MSNBC is reporting 67% in Washington (96% reporting), 68% in Nebraska (99% reporting) and 57% in Louisiana (98% reporting). Real Clear Politics is reporting 49% Clinton, 48% Obama in New Mexico (99% reporting), but have yet to call a winner. Politico has him with 90% of the votes in The Virgin Islands, which offer the equivalent of 3 delegates.
Currently, he has 861 earned delegates to Clinton’s 855. RCP, which includes superdelegates in its counts, has him placed at 1,096 to Clinton’s 1,112 — only a 16 delegate difference.
Whether this will translate into victories further down the line is a mystery to me.
Tomorrow, Maine votes. The last poll done was 10 months ago, and had Clinton at a 17-point lead. While I suspect that Obama’s numbers have improved since then, Clinton has been doing very well in the Northeast, with the exception of Connecticut. I’m calling this one for her.
The following Tuesday, the beltway (MD, D.C., and VA) votes.
Virginia’s polls (all done in the past few days) have Obama leading with an average of 17.5 points. I don’t have much regard for the polls (Rasmussen and SUSA have proven themselves worthless many times before), but Virginia’s open primary and 20% black population should turn into a win for Obama. Tim McBride recently showed me an encouraging poll done there that has Obama winning the popular vote in most individual districts, as well. Calling this one for Obama, unless her momentum in Maine is so huge that she flips the vote.
Maryland polling is slightly less up-to-date than Virginia (two were done this month, one was done in early January and one was done in October). The earliest poll has her at a 19-point lead, but Rasmussen has Obama leading her by 26 points. Calling this one for Obama, with the same reservation as in the Virginia primary.
D.C. will go to Obama. There’s no polling data available, but it will go to Obama. It has been blue in every election since it was added to the electoral college (it even supported Carter and Mondale over Reagan), and the population is 62% black. I don’t care what happens in Maine, the Washington Insider will not get Washington.
